Le code vestimentaire UBS (document en anglais)
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CEE Banking Sector Report
October 2011
Banking Sector Convergence 2.0
Analysts
Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Vienna
Gunter Deuber
gunter.deuber@raiffeisenresearch.at
Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Vienna
Jovan Sikimic
sikimic@rcb.at
2
Contents
Table of
contents
Summary 3
Banking trends in CEE
Introduction 4
Definition of sub-regions 4
Regional economic outlook 6
Ownership structures and market concentration 7
Financial intermediation 12
Recent asset growth dynamics 13
Lending structures and lending trends 14
Recent lending dynamics 19
Deposits 22
Recent deposit dynamics 23
Long-term loan growth outlook 24
Most attractive CEE banking markets 2011-15 29
Challenges and opportunities for banking in CEE 32
Country overviews
Poland 38
Hungary 40
Czech Republic 42
Slovakia 44
Slovenia 46
Croatia 48
Romania 50
Bulgaria 52
Serbia 54
Bosnia and Herzegovina 56
Albania 58
Russia 60
Ukraine 62
Belarus 64
Market players in CEE 66
Key abbreviations 77
Acknowledgements 78
Disclaimer 79
Contacts 80
3
Summary
CEE Banking Sector Report
Summary
Loan growth in CEE accelerated in 2010 and H1 2011, a development
reflected in the aggregated data for the region's banking sectors and major
banks. Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo,
Erste and Société Générale all posted loan growth. With lending volumes
returning to growth and the economic situation in CEE stabilising, non-performing
loans are almost at the peak or already past it at all major CEE
banks, which is also confirmed by aggregated banking sector data. However,
Hungary and some SEE markets remain challenging with regard to
loan quality. Although the trend of ever rising loan-to-deposit ratios has
now stopped, these ratios have decreased only in a limited number of
CEE economies. Consequently, no significant changes occurred within the
large banking groups in CEE in terms of their funding balances.
No major changes took place in the rankings of the region's Top-5 banks
(in terms of total assets) in 2010/H1 2011. A certain amount of consolidation
and new market entries were observable among the banks ranked
11-20, with Santander strengthening its CEE presence via its acquisition
in Poland, Volksbank International being sold to Sberbank, and Greece's
EFG and Alpha Bank set to merge. This consolidation may continue on
what is essentially a buyer's market: KBC and BCP have announced plans
to divest in CEE, Hypo Alpe Adria remains a mid-term takeover target.
Currently, CEE banking groups are focusing on Poland and Russia and to
a lesser extent, also on Romania and Serbia. The focus on these markets
makes sense from a fundamental perspective, as they all have still room
to grow their loan stock and financial intermediation. However, the macroeconomic
environment for CEE started to deteriorate in H2 2011 due
to the expected slowdown of the world economy and in the Eurozone
in particular. For this reason, one has to be cautious regarding the nearterm
banking sector outlook in CEE. Moreover, recent negative developments
with regard to the regulatory landscape in some CEE countries
(e.g. outsized bank levies or interference in private loan agreements)
must be watched carefully, as they set flawed standards and may undermine
the attractiveness of the respective banking sectors.
The expected lower availability of external financing suggests that deposits
will retain the attractiveness they gained in CEE in recent years. As a
result, sustainable loan growth in CEE will be more closely tied to deposit
growth than in the past. In addition, some CEE economies may well face
a more prolonged period of relatively low loan growth. Loan-to-GDP
...