81 / 5000 Résultats de traduction quelles seront les conséquences si la Grèce fait faillite? Quels sont les scénarios possibles? (document en anglais)

Greece must exit

News are still speaking about Greece debt Crisis and there are so Many topics about this subject. But the main fact is : what will be consequences if Greece goes bankrupt? What are possible scenarios ?

The euro-zone debt crisis continues, more than two years after the initial turmoil in European markets on the back of financial investors’ fears that several euro-zone countries faced severe difficulties in financing their large budget deficits, and growing public debt burdens. The crisis originated in January 2010 in Greece when the EU found ‘severe irregularities’ in the country’s accounting procedures. As a result, Greece’s 2009 government deficit was revised up from 3.7% of GDP to 12.7% (and later to 13.6%). Amidst this shocking news, financial markets became increasingly risk averse and yields on govern- ment bonds of several EU members rose sharply, most notably Portugal and Ireland (rising yields are an indication that markets see more risk in investing in the bonds). In April 2010, the Greek government were forced to ask the EU/ECB/IMF (the Troika) for assistance, and on 2 May 2010 the Troika agreed on a EUR110bn bailout package (followed by a second bailout package worth EUR109bn in July 2011), subject to compliance with Troika-imposed and -controlled tough austerity measures.

At first, let’s talk about the history. Greece arrived in Europe in 1981 and managed to enter in the Eurozone. But the point is this one : did the Greece respect the growth and stability pact? In fact Greece didn’t respect this pact because they have cheated about their debt. Some journalist revealed that Golden Sachs has given a loan of billion dollars to hide the fact that their debt was too much to enter in the Eurozone. Now, this situation has a lot of consequences for eurozone member.

Now, we are going to speak about the consequences about the exiting of Greece from the Eurozone.

As you know, the situation in Greece is dramatic. Greece is not the only one country which has some difficulties in Eurozone. So, if Greece leaves the Eurozone the financial market will target other weak countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain. Then, the crisis will be higher than the past because the confidence in this kind of countries are very low. In fact, the main source of power in financial market is the confidence. For instance, the confidence to a country in the financial market allows him to found new founds. Thus, if there is lack of confidence, countries will have some difficulties to find any kind of funds. Eventually, if Greece leaves the Eurozone it is the euro’s credibility which will be attacked by markets. Then all countries in the Eurozone will have some difficulties to implement new policies to found a solution about Greece.

What are possible scenarios?

it is interesting to develop some of the possible scenarios that might occur regarding the impact a Greek bankruptcy will have on the euro, on the European Union and perhaps on the global economy. To formulate the possible scenarios we first need to take some real facts into account.

For instance, the first parameter that we need to take into consideration is that most of the Greek government bonds are in the hands of German and French investors. Otherwise this means that most of the money that Greece has to pay back, will be given to Germans and French.

Eventually as we said before is that Greece belongs to the eurozone, and a failure to save Greece would send all those necessary negative messages to the markets that would convince them that other euro countries such as Portugal and Ireland might easily meet the same fate.

The last thing is that Greece received the biggest bail out ever to be given to a country (110 billion euro).

Let’s talk about the scenarios :

The first scenario suggests that a Greek collapse will transmit the crisis to the countries of the creditors who have already started shaking. Then the problem will multiply geometrically, meaning that a much deeper crisis will come with serious consequences in the integrity of the EU.

The second scenario is simple: a greek crisis will speak to other countries which will collapse at the same time as the Eurozone. Eventually, it would affect not only the Eurozone but also all countries in the world.

As we have seen before, there will be too many consequences if Greece exit the euro zone.

But we have to wonder this point: Is in the Greece interest to leave the euro zone?

We noticed that the greeks were never ready to enter in the eurozone and they are not ready to stay in. Nobody can force the greeks to leave the eurozone. But after speaking about consequences we have to admit that the withdrawal of the greeks is the best solution. It is not about the matter of keeping greeks or not but is the only way for them A chance tonget back on their feets for the long term. Thanks to this choice, they could have again their own currency and devaluate their money to sell their production cheaper than other countries. This exiting has to be negociated seriously without any cheats or tricks which occur problems in the futur. Eventually, a greek withdrawal will give them back their dignity and with their own currency they will be able to make their own economic policy without being dependant from others countries.

Supporters of the Greek Communist Party waves party flags and chant slogans, during a rally on Monday calling for Greece's exit from the eurozone

La tragédie grecque de l’euro en est au dernier acte : il semble évident que le risque est élevé que la Grèce cesse d’honorer sa dette cette année ou l’an prochain en même temps qu’elle quitte la zone euro.

Le fait de remettre la sortie de zone après l’élection de juin d’un nouveau gouvernement en faveur d’une variante des mêmes politiques inopérantes (l’austérité amplificatrice de récession et les réformes structurelles) ne fera pas revenir la croissance et la compétitivité. La Grèce est prisonnière d’un cercle vicieux d’insolvabilité, de perte de compétitivité, de déficits externes et d’une dépression qui prend de plus en plus d’ampleur. La seule façon de sortir de cette crise consiste d’instaurer un processus ordonné de sortie de zone et de défaut de paiement, coordonné et financé par la Banque centrale européenne, l’Union européenne et le Fonds monétaire international (la « Troïka »), et qui réduira

...