THAILAND POTENTIAL RISKS

THAÏLAND

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  Capital : Bangkok

  Superficy : 513 115 km2 ;

  Population : 67 090 000 inhabitants

  Alphabetisation : 94,1 %

  Unemployment : 1,5 % (2009)

  Religion: bouddhisme

  Languages : Thaï, Chinese, English

  Money : Baht (THB) - 1 $ USD = 32,73 bahts  (march 2015) ;

  Politics : Constitutional Monarchy

  GDP : $ 161 688 000 USD

  GDP / hab. : $ 8373 USD

POLITICAL FACTORS IN RISK     50 points

• Bad neighbours : 0/ 3pts points

0: Perfect relationship with his neighbors, no tension and conflict with any of his neighbors. Neutral or friendly relationship with his neighbors. Neighbors are not in war. 

1: When there is no friendly relationship because of an historical disagreement but no real tension either in the present so not a real risk of conflict with his neighbors. Neighbor having an embargo. 

2: When there is a tension and there might be a risk of a conflict with one of his neighbors, regarding different political or religious ideologies, borders disputes. 

3: When the country is at war or has a conflict with one or several of his neighbors. When the neighbor is in war with a third part. 

• Authoritarian Government : 2/7  points

0: The new democratic government, which has taken over just one year ago, must not forget that the majority in the parliament has provided them an opportunity to bridge the gap between two separate worlds - civil democracy and the military.

1: While politicians and civilians are portrayed as incompetent and corrupt, the military is presented as the better institution. A military parliament divide is not in the interest of the country.

2: The democrats and especially the elected prime minister do not ensure the supremacy of parliament on all the institutions of the state including the military by allowing the discussion of all issues related to the defence of the country.

• Staleness : 1/ 5pts

0 : army and its intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), have long been on top of the power structure in the country. Through coups, support of militants, and interference in their neighbouring countries' affairs.

1 : Militant Islamic groups are the other powerful players, sometimes standing on the same side as the government.

• Illegitimacy of regime :  0 /9points

0: Democracy

1 :Parliamentary monarchy

2: Democracy with unique party  

3 :Authoritarian regime with democratic appearance

4 :Absolute monarchy

5 :Popular coup d’etat

6: Militarian coup d’etat

7: Totalitarian regime

8: Familial dictature

9 Colonisation

The world's largest democracy by electorate was created after independence in 1947 under the leadership of its nationalist movement, the Thailand National Congress.

• Generals in power insurrection :  6/6 points

http://2bangkok.com/forbes-thailands-military-junta-destroys-democracy-enjoys-exercising-power-generals-postpone-elections-before-rigging-them.html 

• War and armed insurrection :  10/20 points

0: Total absence of war / conflict

2: Citizen revendications. Demonstrations

4: Borders conflicts, extremist threats, presence of armed groups in the country

6: Involvement of the country in a foreign coalition, terrorists groups threats, civil tensions, riots, kidnappings

8: Terrorism, civil war

10: Civil  and International war

SOCIAL FACTORS     17 points

• Urbanization : / 3 points

0 : Very low rate of urbanization, low Place of exchanges, low crossroads of communication routes,  no drift from the land

1 : low rate of urbanization, few Place of exchanges, few crossroads of communication routes, some drift from the land

2 : intermediary rate of urbanization, Place of exchanges, crossroads of communication routes, drift from the land

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